The Tokpie Token Confidence Index, previously called the Token Sale Confidence Index, describes the outlook of people who say they represent token projects. It brings together teams with live tokens and projects preparing a launch. The current survey asks how they expect buyer demand to change over the next 30 days compared with the previous 30 days.
This article explains the methodology, the preserved historical series and how to participate. The latest available results, response distributions, history and voting form are on the separate Token Confidence Index dashboard. Use the survey as context for planning alongside your own project data.
What the Token Confidence Index measures
The headline index summarizes expected buyer demand among eligible respondents. Project stage determines eligibility and supports separate stage comparisons. Marketing-budget plans are reported as an additional indicator and do not contribute to the headline score.
Participation is voluntary and respondents select themselves. This is not a random or representative sample of the entire crypto market. It does not forecast token prices, measure token-sale proceeds or estimate the probability of a successful ICO, IEO or other token sale. More responses can make the participating group easier to describe, but do not remove selection bias.
The three survey questions
The following wording and answer choices match the live form checked on 30 September 2026. Both outlook questions compare the next 30 days with the past 30 days.
1. Project stage
“Which best describes you?”
- I represent a project with a live token
- I represent a project preparing a token
- I do not represent a token project
The first two groups are eligible for the survey score. Visitors who do not represent a token project can explore the results but do not enter the index. Stage is self-reported.
2. Expected buyer demand
“Compared with the past 30 days, how do you expect buyer demand for tokens from projects at your stage to change over the next 30 days?”
- Increase
- Stay about the same
- Decrease
- Cannot assess
This is the only question used in the main Token Confidence Index. “Cannot assess” is reported separately and excluded from the calculation.
3. Marketing-budget plans
“Compared with the past 30 days, how will your project’s marketing budget change over the next 30 days?”
- Increase
- Stay about the same
- Decrease
- Not decided or not applicable
Marketing-budget answers appear separately. Their indicator uses the same scoring approach on its own valid responses, excluding “Not decided or not applicable”. It has no weight in the main demand index. Its distribution becomes available at 10 valid budget responses.
How the Token Confidence Index is calculated
Let Increase, Same and Decrease be the counts of eligible responses to the buyer-demand question. “Same” means the form’s “Stay about the same” answer. The formula is:
Index = 100 × (Increase + 0.5 × Same) / (Increase + Same + Decrease)
All eligible responses have equal weight. The denominator contains only Increase, Same and Decrease answers; “Cannot assess” does not enter it. The score ranges from 0 to 100. An all-Decrease group scores 0, while an all-Increase group scores 100, subject to the publication thresholds below.
The rolling 30-day window
The calculation uses the latest accepted response from each browser within the trailing 30 × 24 hours. A new accepted response from that browser replaces its previous response. Answers that fall outside the window stop contributing. Both eligible project stages carry equal weight; the score is not a calendar-month average.
When a result becomes visible
- Fewer than 10 valid demand responses: the page is collecting responses and does not show a numeric index.
- 10–29 valid demand responses: the displayed result is provisional.
- 30 or more valid demand responses: the published reading describes the participating group. It is still a self-selected sample.
- Project-stage comparisons: each stage needs at least 30 valid demand responses before its separate indicator appears.
These thresholds control publication; they do not establish market-wide representativeness, a population margin of error or predictive accuracy. Read the response count and the distribution alongside the headline number.
Why a score of 50 needs context
A score of 50 does not necessarily mean respondents agree. For example, 100 “Same” answers produce 50. So do 50 “Increase” answers and 50 “Decrease” answers with no “Same” answers. These are hypothetical examples: one group expects stability, while the other is split between opposing views. The distribution shows the difference.
History since 2021 and the September 2026 transition
The legacy Token Sale Confidence Index contains 66 monthly observations from April 2021 through September 2026 inclusive. These historical values are preserved without recalculation. The last legacy observation is 83.3 for September 2026; it is not the current result of the new survey.
Version 2 begins on 30 September 2026. Its demand-only formula, eligibility rules and rolling window differ from the legacy method. The dashboard marks that boundary because the two series are not directly comparable. Interpret changes across it cautiously rather than treating them as a continuous measurement under one method.
Earlier forecast points for future months are not observations and are not included as observed history. The former automatic moving-average projection is not part of the new survey. Legacy sample counts are unavailable. You can explore the preserved series and download aggregate history on the history section of the dashboard.
Three different update schedules
- Current survey reading: recalculated after an accepted response. The live page refreshes the reading every minute; expired responses leave the rolling window.
- Historical survey snapshots: aggregate observations are archived daily, at approximately 00:05 UTC. The monthly archive shows the last available daily snapshot, not a monthly average. Missed days remain missing.
- Market context: collected separately each day, with retries when a source is unavailable. Each card carries its own observation time.
A newly accepted response can affect the current reading without immediately creating a new point in the historical chart. Always check the period, response count and timestamp attached to the data you are viewing.
Daily market context is separate from the survey
The dashboard provides three additional perspectives from free sources. None enters the Token Confidence Index formula, and they should not be treated as independent proof of the survey result.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
Alternative.me supplies the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. It describes Bitcoin market sentiment, rather than confidence reported by token teams. The card identifies the source and the observation date.
USDC and USDT supply on Ethereum
The stablecoin card adds the totalSupply of the USDC and USDT contracts on Ethereum, read through PublicNode’s free Ethereum RPC. It covers Ethereum only and includes treasury balances. It is not global stablecoin supply, circulating supply across every chain or fresh capital flowing into token sales.
The 30-day change compares a daily snapshot with the snapshot 30 calendar days earlier. That comparison appears only after the necessary history and baseline are available. An unavailable comparison should not be interpreted as zero change.
Ethereum base fee
The fee card reports baseFeePerGas in gwei from a finalized Ethereum block and shows the block and observation time. It is a dated snapshot of the base fee, not a daily average or the full cost of a transaction. Priority fees and the amount of gas used affect the final transaction cost.
If a source fails, the last good value retains its original date rather than being replaced with zero. Older observations can be marked stale. Read those timestamps before using the cards as current context.
How to participate
- Open the three-question survey on the new index page.
- Select the stage that accurately describes your role, then answer the buyer-demand and marketing-budget questions. Choose the uncertainty option when you cannot assess a question.
- Submit your outlook. An accepted response becomes your browser’s current response; you can update it when your outlook changes.
- Review the latest available results and response counts on the same dashboard. A numeric reading appears only when its threshold is met.
No email, wallet connection or sign-up required. Participation is free and does not require buying a Tokpie service. You no longer need a monthly email invitation or a Google Forms link to take part.
Browser controls and privacy
A first-party cookie helps recognize the browser and limit repeat responses. Submission limits, bot checks and short-lived technical signals help protect against abuse; ordinary hosting and Cloudflare security processing also applies. These controls cannot verify a strict “one project, one vote” rule. One team can be overrepresented through multiple browsers.
Individual ballots are not published. For current retention and technical-processing details, read how the live page handles responses and the Tokpie privacy policy.
Practical resources for token teams
Use the survey as one input to your planning. The existing guides below cover project information, wallets, market data and listing preparation. Each platform has its own requirements; a confidence reading does not establish eligibility or guarantee approval.
Wallet and DEX information
- MetaMask token logos; price display in MetaMask; Uniswap token logos.
- Trust Wallet; Trezor token information.
- Bank-card and Apple Pay purchase options; Tokpie trading guide.
Tracker and market-data preparation
- CoinGecko listing guide; CoinMarketCap application guide; CMC and CoinGecko listing support.
- Coin-tracker overview; token-discovery voting platforms.
- Coinpaprika; Coindar; BitDegree; Coinranking; CoinLore.
- CoinCodex; CoinCheckup; CoinDataFlow; LiveCoinWatch; Blockspot.
- DigitalCoinPrice; CoinCost; CoinCarp.
Exchange and chain-specific guides
- Coinbase listing preparation; Binance listing preparation; Tokpie listing process.
- Solana overview; Solana CMC and CoinGecko applications; Base; Arbitrum.
- Polygon; Tron; TON.
Project fundamentals
For a separate exchange workflow, review Tokpie self-listing and fundraising tools. This is a listing resource, not the confidence survey.
Put the outlook in context
The Tokpie Token Confidence Index provides a descriptive view of the participating token teams. Its value comes from reading the demand score together with its sample size, distribution, project stages and method. Keep the preserved 2021–2026 history distinct from the new survey, and treat the daily market cards as separate context.
Visit the Token Confidence Index dashboard to view the latest available results and history, or share your team’s 30-day outlook. Return when your outlook changes and update your response directly on that page.